Which cryptocurrencies, altcoins will survive in the future?
Everyone involved in crypto markets knows that a lot of cryptocurrencies will not survive over even a few years. So how to know which ones will not make it? What data to look at? Our analysis shows that one of the best indicators to watch is the number of times the cryptocurrency is mentioned on the social media. If a fall begins in the number of social media mentions, the price many times follows as well, as we show in many examples seen in our text below.
Which crypto currencies will make it over the next years is one of the more important questions in the crypto market and for cryptocurrency investors. Nobody wants to be holding the losing coins and the losses associated with it. But how does one go and determine qualitatively and quantitatively the signs that one should be looking for in order to avoid holding the declining altcoins that will go out of fashion and out of use? We suggest you to look for several metrics that can tell you the "health" of the coin and cryptocurrency:
- number of times the coin is mentioned on social media. When these numbers start drastically falling relative to others, most of the time, the price decline follows
- sentiment of social media posts and news about the coin. If there are many negative posts about the coin over a long period of time, it is not a good sign.
- market cap of cryptocurrency, relative to others. Well capitalized altcoins mean that investors have a high opinion on their survavibility.
- trading volume, relative to others. High trading volume indicates that a lot of investors are interested in and trades the cryptocurrency.
- developer activity. Developer activity of a cryptocurrency or blockchain project can be measured by looking at number of watches, stars, forks, commits, contributors, issues and pull requests at github page of the cryptocurrency project.
- funding, if project is funded by e.g. venture funds or other entities. The more funding and the more prominent are the backers, the better is the likelihood of survival in case of long, bear markets in the crypto space.
Let us now look in turn to the factors mentioned above, starting with number of social media mentions.
Social media mentions of coins
First let us check the number of daily social media mentions of the most "healthy" cryptocurrency - Bitcoin:
Note how the number of mentions is closely correlated with the Bitcoin price. This is a sign of healthy coins with large and rising interest of public. Let us look at another coin Verge, where the interest in coin declined along with price, but then in 2021 the social media mentions returned with some spikes together with rise in price:
Another example displaying the value in number of social mentions is Dogecoin, see how after years of disinterest in the coin, there were suddenly spikes in number of social media mentions, followed by a bull run of the Dogecoin:
“ BittsAnalytics is a suite of social media listening tools that can help you track which cryptocurrencies will survive in the future
Another important metric which indicates the health of crypto is its marketcap. The higher the marketcap the better are probabilities for survival of crypto coin.
Our BittsAnalytics provides you with this information as well:
Github developer activityThere are various metrics on github which allows you to keep track of interest in crypto project.
WatchWatch counts number of developers that have Github accounts and wish to keep track of this source code repository and some of them are subscribed via email whenever there are updates to the source code. A watch count indicates the level of interest in the project and high number will indicate that this coin has more developer interest.
StarThis is the Github like button. Similar to the Facebook like count, a higher Github star count indicates that more developers appreciate the work that is being done on this code repository.
ForkThe fork count is a measurement of the number of people who have forked the code repository to potentially create other coins. A higher fork count indicates that someone may eventually build an altcoin based on this coin's source code.
CommitsThe commit history of the source code repository is available for each coin. When you click on the "Commits" tab, you will get an idea of how often the developers are making changes in the code. A high count indicates the repository is actively maintained.
ContributorsThis is a list of people who have contributed to the coin project by programming and developing the source code.
FundingAnother important metric by which to evaluate crypto projects is the funding they received, either via ICO (in earlier days) or via funding from venture funds, angel investors and others. High funding means that the crypto project has plenty of resources to weather any downturns, which are common in crypto market. Backing from venture funds also means that the crypto company may look for additional source of funding in case of expansion and growth. See plans
BittsAnalytics, developed by the company Alpha Quantum, is a leading analytics platform for cryptocurrencies, delivering social sentiment and other cryptocurrencies data since 2017.